Smoking-related lung disease costs ‘will rise past 2.5bn pounds annually’

A new study has demonstrated the degree to which smoking-related chronic lung disease is expected to spiral across the UK over the next decade and a half.

Researchers from the University of Edinburgh assessed rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and information about the number of smokers from 2011, using a mathematical model to extrapolate these trends forward to 2030.

It was estimated that the number of people with a COPD diagnosis in England will rise from just over a million cases in 2011 to more than 1.3 million by 2030, while the number will rise from 100,000 to 120,000 in Scotland.

Although smoking rates are predicted to decline in the same period, the total number of cases will nevertheless rise because people are living longer with the disease.

As such, the cost of treating COPD will exceed more than 2.3 billion pounds per year in England and 200 million pounds in Scotland by 2030.

Dr Susannah McLean, who conducted the research at the University of Edinburgh, said: "Our findings suggest there will be a substantial number of frail, elderly people living with COPD in the coming years. I hope that advances in healthcare technologies will help to meet this rising demand."

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