HIV cases ‘could be cut by 95 per cent’

The number of people being diagnosed with HIV could be reduced by 95 per cent within ten years, through voluntary testing and immediate treatment, it has been claimed.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) universal voluntary testing and antiretroviral treatment (ART) following positive diagnosis would see cases of the disease fall from 20 per 1,000 people to one in every 1,000.

Dr Reuben Granich and colleagues at the department of HIV/Aids at the organisation used mathematical modelling to explore the effect on the case reproduction number and long-term dynamics of the virus.

About three million people worldwide had received ART by the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of therapy.

Researchers found their studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the current endemic phase, in which most adults with the virus are not receiving the treatment, to an elimination phase, in which most adults are on it within five years.

“Our model suggests that only universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate initiation of ART could reduce transmission to the point at which elimination might be feasible by 2020 for a generalised epidemic, such as that in South Africa,” the authors wrote in the Lancet.