People in England and Wales ‘will exceed current life expectancy estimates’

A new study charting changes in life expectancy in England and Wales has predicted people will live longer than current estimates suggest.

The Imperial College London research developed statistical models using death records – including data on age, sex and postcode – from 1981 to 2012 to forecast life expectancy at birth for 375 districts in England and Wales.

It predicts that life expectancy will increase for men from 79.5 years in 2012 to 85.7 in 2030, and for women from 83.3 in 2012 to 87.6 in 2030, thus further narrowing the longevity gap between the sexes.

The study also indicated that those living in the areas of greatest longevity in 2012, such as southern England and well-off parts of London, will live more than eight years longer than those in parts of urban northern England by 2030.

Professor Majid Ezzati, from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said: "The NHS plays a very important role in reducing health inequality in the UK. It's vital that it receives the investment needed to continue providing high-quality care to all citizens as the population lives longer."

He added that it is necessary to look again at how social policies that affect the disadvantaged might also contribute to rising health inequality.