Predicted burden of diabetes ‘underestimated’

The prevalence of diabetes could be worse than predicted, it has been claimed today.

It is estimated by the World Health Organisation that the global rate of diabetes will rise by 39 per cent from 2000 to 2039.

But Canadian researchers believe this may be a huge underestimate following their recent study, published today in the Lancet medical journal.

Scientists from Toronto’s Institute for Clinical Evaluative Studies used population-based data from Ontario, Canada, to examine trends in diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality between 1995 and 2005.

They found a 69 per cent increase in the prevalence of diabetes during this decade.

The researchers acknowledge that Ontario might have a higher diabetes rate than regions in other developed countries due to a high rate of immigration from regions with more susceptible populations.

But, they argue, if similar trends are occurring throughout the developed world than the size of the anticipated diabetes epidemic will be greater than predicted.

“Our data are important to enable policymakers to adequately prepare for the increasing burden of diabetes on health-care resources…effective public-health interventions to manage and prevent obesity are sorely needed,” the researchers write.

“Future research should also focus on identification of high-risk socio-demographic groups for whom specific interventions might be required.”

Diabetes is a condition in which the amount of sugar in the blood is too high because the body cannot use it properly. Being overweight and having high blood pressure can increase the risk of diabetes.

It is estimated that there are about two million people diagnosed with diabetes in the UK.